Right. Here’s my election intro’. Apologies for any errors but I can’t be arsed with doing too much research so I’ve just cobbled this together from the list of candidates and relied on my general knowledge. Please post any corrections to the comments.
I’ve no idea about majorities, swings and all the statistical stuff because it’s too boring for words and I really can’t be bothered to look it all up. Anyway, hopefully Paul Smith will pop along to bore us with all that stuff as the night proceeds …
My generalised predictions are: a good night for Labour; a disaster for the Lib Dems; a couple of seats for the Greens and – percentage wise – a good night for UKIP but probably no councillors. My dodgy ward predictions are below.
The wards to watch:
Avonmouth: a three way marginal between UKIP, Labour and the Tories. Plus it has the added ingredient of Steve “The Voice” Norman running as an independent. Steve’s unlikely to win but he may pull enough votes to affect the outcome. If Merchant Venturer apologist and all-round sell-out, Labour’s John Bees loses then Steve will consider it a victory and be back for more in 2016. I’ll call this for the Green voting Tory candidate, Matthew Melia.
Kingsweston: Experienced campaigner Terry Thomas running for UKIP. If they’re going to win anywhere it will be here. The other frontrunners are Tim Leaman (Lib) and Mike Thorne (Lab). Labour to win?
Southville: Greens are desperate to hold this and have brought back Charlie Bolton to fight it. Presumably Charlie wants in so that he can take up full time fagging duties at the Counts Louse for his public school friend, Mayor Fergo? Labour’s Celia Phipps is an entirely superfluous NHS middle manager. UKIP are running too. Green hold.
Knowle: Lib Dem fat tosser Gary Hopkins’ ward. He’s got to overcome a massive national swing and a considerable wave of personal hatred towards him in the ward to hang on. Seems unlikely so they’ll be champagne corks popping in Knowle tonight when Labour’s Chris Orlik romps home. UKIP are running.
Bishopston: Green target seat. They’re up against the Labour Party’s bullying social worker boss Eileen “Meanie” Means. So let’s all cheer her demise. Green gain.
Whitchurch Park: Lib Dem boss, Tim Kent’s patch. Under serious threat from a massive national swing against Lib Dems and local indifference. Up against a middle class gal from Bishopston, Alice Bouquet, just off the Labour Party’s machine politician production line. For some reason they think student politics is the way forward for a working class south Bristol ward. Whoever wins, we all lose. UKIP are running here too. Labour gain.
Redland: Independents for Bristol number one target despite the oddity Stella Perrett being their candidate. Perrett is an old Lib Dem and a former associate of Lib Dem paedo councillor John Astley and so is an odd choice for candidate. The Greens fancy this ward as they desperately triangulate ever further towards the Lib Dems (even down to having bent councillors) and the Lib Dems probably think they can hold on too. This is a test of the Lib Dem vote in their heartlands and will be a useful guide to Bristol West in the General Election next year. I’ve personally no idea who will win but I’ll say Lib Dem Hold.
And the others:
Bedminster: Labour cabinet member Mark Bradshaw’s backyard. He should hold easily.
Bishopsworth: Solid Conservative ward. IfB have local Jon Craig running. Labour gobshite Kye Dudd is running too but will come nowhere; Tory Kevin Quartley will hold.
Brislington East: Mike Wollacott for Labour will hold. UKIP running.
Brislington West: Lib Dem Peter Main has held the seat for years. Is it finally over? UKIP running. Labour unknown Rhian Greaves also running. Lib Dem hold.
Filwood: Labour’s Chris Jackson will hold this easily.
Hartcliffe: Mildly interesting as sitting Labour councillor Derek “Wanker” Pickup was deselected in favour of the youthful Naomi Rylatt. Rylatt is at least from south Bristol rather than imported from Bristol West to bore us all to death with student equalities bullshit. Labour hold.
Henbury: Labour hold for Rosalie Walker. The ward is actually held by Tory idiot Mark Weston, the former chair of the useless audit committee. He personally oversaw the disappearance of hundreds of thousands of pounds and the bullying of whistleblowers trying to expose this. Deserves to lose. Labour gain.
Hengrove: This is between Lib Dem councillor Sylvia Doubell and Labour challenger Yvonne Clapp. UKIP are running. Labour gain?
Henleaze: Lib Dem Clare Campion-Smith should hold this. Another Lib Dem heartland seat. If they lose this then Bristol West MP Stephen Williams is in trouble. UKIP are running.
Horfield: Formerly a solid Lib Dem seat. Can Chery Ann hold on to this Bristol West Lib Dem heartland seat? I haven’t got a clue. UKIP running. Lib Dem hold.
Lockleaze: Lib Dem Sean Emmett is doomed. Gill Kirk for Labour will win this. UKIP running.
Southmead: Jenny Smith, who appeared senile when I met her about 20 years ago, remains the Labour candidate and she will win. UKIP running and it will be interesting to see how they get on.
St George West: Labour’s Peter Hammond’s seat. The fact he’s been living in Manchester for at least 6 months while claiming councillor expenses seems to have passed everyone by. IfB have a candidate – Jane Westhead. Labour without Hammond will hold.
Stockwood: David Morris will hold this for the Tories
Stoke Bishop: Tory John Goulandris will hold. UKIP running.
Westbury: Tory Alastair Watson will hold. UKIP running.
Windmill Hill: Lib Dem Andrew Brown is taking over a big majority from retiring old fart Alf Havock. The hugely entertainingly named Sam Mongon is running for Labour. UKIP running too. Lib Dem hold.
And finally, with the highly public sacking and humiliation of Returning Officer and Chief Solicitor, Stephen “Lycra” McNamara last year for a general level of unbelievable incompetence, we have a new, untried Returning Officer, “God” Zilah Morris. It will be interesting to see if she can continue Lycra’s grand tradition of lost ballots, lost ballot boxes, late counts, creative arithmetic and all-round cock-up.
Early signs are promising as we’ve already had reports of polling stations with incomplete and missing electoral registers.
That should help prevent any fraud! Ho, ho!
Mark Weston is the incumbent in Henbury.
Thanks. Will change.
I applied for a proxy vote for my wife well ahead of the deadline.
I rcvd nothing in the post, and nothing was marked down at the polling station. So another vote is wasted.
Our postal voting system is well known for being wide open to fraud. However, the politicians don’t seem bothered.
What about Spud Murhpy in Avonmouth. Ex Tory. Equal first at last election for Tories. Standing for UKIP this time
Murphy is widely considered to be in with a shout. We’ll have to wait and see.